Market check

The Whole Market

A live look at whether the S&P still speaks for the whole market, or mostly for a handful of giant stocks.

Live14 Oct 2026

S&P (SPX) 7,697.12−1.4%

Equal-weight (SPXEW) 8,561.63−0.9%

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 727.48−2.2%

Russell (IWM) −2.2%

Crude oil (CL) 96.04

Brent (BZ) 106.91

10-year (TNX) 5.21%

20-year 5.60%

30-year (TYX) 5.54%

The S&P is not the whole market

Over the last three months, the correlation between the S&P (SPX) and the equal-weight S&P (SPXEW) is 0.72, −2.2σ versus a 10-year average of 0.90. Crude oil (CL) is −0.56 versus a 10-year average of 0.15, and the 10-year yield (TNX) is −0.32 versus 0.12. Correlation near 1 means the same days up and down. Near 0 means no relationship. Below 0 means they move in opposite directions.

σ is how many standard deviations today’s correlation sits from its 10-year average. A 1σ move lands that far on one side in about 16% of readings. 2σ is about 2.5%. 3σ is about 0.14%.

How split

The S&P (SPX) and the rest of the market have split. The score runs from 0 to 100. Each input is scaled from its own history: 0 is in line with that history, 100 is an extreme. Weights are equal-weight (SPXEW) 26%, crude (CL) 14%, the 10-year (TNX) 14%, corporate bonds (LQD) 12%, energy, staples, utilities, and health care 14%, and $SPXXAI versus the S&P (SPX) 20%. A correlation below its 10-year average raises the score, except credit, where a higher correlation does. The $SPXXAI piece also uses that book’s drawdown against SPX and how many stocks are above their 200-day.

S&P (SPX) vs equal-weight (SPXEW)
75
Still moving together. 0.72 now, 0.90 10-year average (−2.2σ).
S&P (SPX) vs crude oil (CL)
94
Moving in opposite directions. −0.56 now, 0.15 10-year average (−2.8σ).
S&P (SPX) vs 10-year (TNX)
47
Moving in opposite directions. −0.32 now, 0.12 10-year average (−1.4σ).
S&P (SPX) vs corporate bonds (LQD)
59
Moving in opposite directions. −0.37 now, −0.57 10-year average (+1.5σ).
Energy, staples, utilities, health
77
Those four average a −0.04 correlation with the S&P (SPX).
S&P ex-AI ($SPXXAI)
43
$SPXXAI is −2.8% from its six-month high. The S&P (SPX) is −1.6% from its high. 47% of S&P (SPX) stocks are above their 200-day average. Five-day total of 52-week highs minus lows: +27.

Three-month correlation

Realized correlation of daily moves over the last 63 trading days. Pick a series to open its 10-year history. The dashed gold line is the 10-year average. Near 1, they rise and fall on the same days. Near 0, they don’t. Below 0, they move in opposite directions. The σ figure is today’s correlation versus that 10-year history.

Equal-weight S&P (SPXEW)

Only 4% of the last 10 years was lower than this.

Are the S&P (SPX) and the equal-weight S&P (SPXEW) still moving as one market?

63-session correlation10-year average

The S&P (SPX) and the market under it

Each line starts at 100. $SPXXAI is the S&P (SPX) with the big AI stocks removed. Equal-weight (SPXEW) gives every company the same weight.

S&P (SPX)Equal-weight (SPXEW)$SPXXAINasdaq 100 (QQQ)

Since 13 Aug 2026, $SPXXAI is −2.8% from its high of the last six months. The S&P (SPX) is −1.6% from its high. The equal-weight S&P (SPXEW) is −5.1% from its high. $SPXXAI holds today’s S&P (SPX) weights fixed and removes the AI stocks. It is not an official index.

S&P (SPX), 3 months

+2.2%

AI stocks

+9.7%

$SPXXAI

−1.5%

Equal-weight (SPXEW)

−1.8%

Those AI stocks, weighted by their size in the S&P (SPX), account for 3.2 percentage points of the S&P (SPX) +2.2% move over the last three months. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +3.1%. Russell 2000 (IWM) −8.5%.

Removed from $SPXXAI: NVDA 8.2% · MSFT 6.0% · AMZN 3.8% · GOOG 5.6% · META 2.5% · AVGO 2.5% · ORCL 0.4% · AMD 1.5% · MU 1.6% · PLTR 0.7%

Sectors against the S&P (SPX)

63-session correlation of each sector with the S&P (SPX). Energy (XLE), staples (XLP), utilities (XLU), and health care (XLV) are labeled brighter.

Now, well below its 10-year averageNow, near its 10-year average10-year average

Scale runs from −1 to +1. Left of the zero line, the sector moves against the S&P (SPX). Zero is no correlation. Right means they move together.

−1−0.50+0.5+1

EnergyXLE−0.29−2.5σ
StaplesXLP−0.05−2.0σ
UtilitiesXLU0.17−0.7σ
Health CareXLV0.01−2.9σ
FinancialsXLF0.56−1.2σ
IndustrialsXLI0.61−2.4σ
MaterialsXLB0.39−2.7σ
Real EstateXLRE0.27−1.1σ
DiscretionaryXLY0.67−2.4σ
CommunicationsXLC0.39−3.7σ
TechnologyXLK0.80−1.8σ

Breadth498 stocks

New highs and new lows are the total over the last five trading days: an S&P (SPX) stock counts each day its close sets a 52-week high or low. Above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day is the share whose last close is above that average.

5-day new highs: 61
5-day new lows: 34
5-day total: +27

Above 20-day: 54%
Above 50-day: 34%
Above 200-day: 47%

Concentration

How much of the S&P (SPX) sits in a few companies. Weight is index share, not earnings share. Alphabet is GOOG only.

Artificial Intelligence related stocks’ share of the S&P (SPX)32.8%

Largest 10 companies40.7%

NVDA NVIDIA CORP8.2%
AAPL APPLE INC7.4%
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP6.0%
GOOG Alphabet5.6%
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC3.8%
AVGO BROADCOM INC2.5%
META META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A2.5%
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC1.6%
TSLA TESLA INC1.6%
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES1.5%

Trading in bonds

These funds hold riskier corporate bonds, safer corporate bonds, and Treasuries. The multiple compares shares traded over the last 20 days with the 1-year average. Above 1× means busier than that average. This is share volume, not options volume.

HYG Riskier corporate bonds1.46×
62.3M vs 42.7M one-year average
LQD Safer corporate bonds1.03×
34.0M vs 32.9M one-year average
TLT Long-term Treasuries1.40×
46.8M vs 33.4M one-year average
IEF Medium-term Treasuries1.25×
11.0M vs 8.8M one-year average

How much prices have been swinging

Not a price from the options market. It measures how bumpy each line has been over the last three months, then sketches the chance of a 5% rise over the next month if that same bumpiness continues and there is no upward or downward drift.

S&P (SPX)11% bounce7% chance of +5%
$SPXXAI9% bounce2% chance of +5%
Equal-weight (SPXEW)10% bounce4% chance of +5%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)18% bounce18% chance of +5%
Russell 2000 (IWM)14% bounce11% chance of +5%

How these numbers are built

The S&P (SPX) line is the cap-weighted index. Equal-weight (SPXEW) gives every S&P company the same weight. Crude oil is the WTI future (CL). The 10-year (TNX) correlation uses the daily change in yield against the daily S&P (SPX) return. The 30-year is the same kind of index (TYX). The 20-year is the Treasury par yield, which is published once a day. Brent is the Brent crude future (BZ). Corporate bonds are LQD versus IEF, signed so a rise means credit lagging Treasuries.

Realized correlation is a 63-session window. Averages and σ use every overlapping window in the loaded history, about 10 years. σ is how many standard deviations today’s correlation sits from that average.

$SPXXAI starts from today’s SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) weights, removes the AI stocks, and compounds what remains. Weights stay frozen. Alphabet is included once, as GOOG. Breadth totals 52-week closing highs and lows over the last five sessions, and counts stocks whose last close is above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day average.

The score blends six readings: SPX versus SPXEW, crude oil (CL), the 10-year (TNX), corporate bonds (LQD), the four highlighted sectors, and how far $SPXXAI and equal-weight have fallen behind the S&P (SPX). It describes the tape. It is not a forecast and not advice.

This report is AI generated and may or may not be accurate. It is not investment advice.